Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

Description: Bernoullis Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science Description Product Description There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach―that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information―in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data―and how to fix it. Review An entertaining mix of history and science. -- Andrew Gelman, Columbia University I like it! Anything that gets people thinking about the uses and abuses of statistics is important and Clayton's book does just this. Fifty years ago E. T. Jaynes opened my eyes to the importance of Bayesian ideas in the real world and this readable account brings these ideas up to date. -- Persi Diaconis, Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics, Stanford University This story of the 'statistics wars' is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly. -- Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, coauthor of Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course The author writes with style and humor and tries to make the read minimally pedantic. ― Non-Stop Reader As well-written as it is fascinating, and for my money is the best single-volume work describing and contributing to the debates in modern statistics on the shelves today. It can be profitably read by those with no background in the field, but will surely contain new ideas for experts as well. Having read the book, I myself will never think about statistics the same way. -- Dominic Klyve ― American Mathematical Monthly About the Author Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics. He holds a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, and his writing has appeared in Pacific Standard, Nautilus, and the Boston Globe. About Us Since our founding, we have taken special pride and pleasure in being able to participate in the exciting world of eCommerce and providing products of the highest quality. It is with this philosophy that we want to run our store and provide exceptional value to you as our customer. Payment We accept payment by PayPal. Tracking Your Order: Once your order ships a tracking number will be sent to you via the email address used to place your order. Problem with My Order: For concerns regarding your order, please contact us here. Shipping All of our shipments are free for you our customer unless you decide to upgrade your shipping for a small fee. At this time we only ship to the continental 48 states of the United States. We do not ship to PO/APO boxes. Returns Returns can only be requested within 30 days of the product shipment date. We offer free return shipping for all of our items. Returned items must be in their original packaging with everything included. Please contact us here (link) for help or assistance in processing a return.

Price: 34.79 USD

Location: Denver, Colorado

End Time: 2025-01-05T04:06:47.000Z

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